Journal article
Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a 'National Plan' to reopening
Gerard E Ryan, Freya M Shearer, James M Mccaw, Jodie Mcvernon, Nick Golding
Epidemics | Elsevier | Published : 2024
Abstract
The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia’s transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders. Using evidence of vaccine effectiveness against the then-circulating Delta variant, we used a mathematical model to determine coverage targets. The absence of any COVID-19 infections in many sub-national jurisdictions in Australia posed particular methodological challenges. We used a novel metric called Transmission Potential (TP) as a pr..
View full abstractGrants
Awarded by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia through its Centres of Research Excellence (SPECTRUM)
Awarded by FMS Emerging Leader Fellowship
Funding Acknowledgements
<STRONG> The study was undertaken as urgent public health action to support Australia's COVID-19 pandemic response. The study used data from the Australian National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) provided to the Australian Government Department of Health under the National Health Security Agreement for the purposes of national </STRONG> This work forms part of a wider body of work around supporting Australia's plan to reopen from COVID-19 restrictions (often known in media as 'the Doherty modelling') . We thank our many colleagues who, while largely locked in their homes, contributed to this large undertaking with unfailing good grace and humour. We also thank many colleagues at Treasury who helped advise and focus this work, in particular including those contributing to Depart- ment of the Treasury (2021) . Thanks to David Price for helpful comments on the manuscript. This work was directly funded by the Australian Government De- partment of Health Office of Health Protection. Additional support was provided by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia through its Centres of Research Excellence (SPECTRUM, GNT1170960) and Investigator Grant Schemes (JMcV Principal Re- search Fellowship, GNT1117140; FMS Emerging Leader Fellowship, 2021/GNT2010051) . This research was supported by The University of Melbourne's Research Computing Services'Petascale Campus Initiative. All authors have seen and approved the final version of the manuscript being submitted.